Fabrizio Antonioli

ENEA – Roma, Italy

Climate change-induced variations in local sea level are expected to expose coastal areas to increased risks flooding and erosion. Predicting sea level rise at the local level is an extremely complex task: relative sea-level changes along coastal systems depend on the sum of climatic and geological processes attributed to eustasy, glacio-hydro-isostasy and tectonics (including natural ground compaction) occurring on a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. This implies that any rigorous prediction of future sea flooding should accurately take into account the contributions of vertical land movements: sometimes downlifting movements are larger than sea level rise for climatic changes. To account for vertical land tectonic movements, it is necessary to mediate between instrumental data (gps and tide gauge) and geological long term data (using last interglacial markers) due to the fact that the first are been active for a few decades while cosismic movements can occur every 150 years. The Mediterranean Sea is expected to be particularly vulnerable to future relative sea level rise, due to the high population density along its coasts and its microtidal regime. Some coastal maps of Italy showing flooding projections will be presented, the maps are drowned under the flag of the National project RITMARE and the EU program CLIMTOUR.